Objective
The study aims to introduce and analyze mobility-based compartmental models in epidemiology, addressing the limitations of classical models that assume a homogeneous population, which can lead to inaccurate predictions regarding disease spread and final pandemic size.
Method
A mobility-based SIRS (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model is proposed, incorporating individual mobility as a variable affecting disease transmission. The model describes disease dynamics through density functions associated with the three compartments (S, I, R) based on an individual's mobility. Mobility distributions are inferred from real-time data of the infected population using a machine-learning approach.
Results
The proposed mobility-based model predicts a smaller final pandemic size than classical models with the same basic reproduction number, effectively countering the common overestimation seen in standard epidemiological models. Sufficient conditions for uniquely identifying the mobility distribution using the time series of the infected population are established. Predicted mobility distributions reflect real-world data trends, indicating the impact of individual mobility on disease spread.
Significance
The findings indicate the importance of incorporating individual-level mobility in compartmental models for more accurate epidemiological predictions. The study contributes to the methodological framework for identifying mobility patterns from epidemiological data, enhancing public health planning.
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